Toulouse host Strasbourg with both on 10 points but opposite trajectories. Strasbourg's away form is catastrophic: 3 straight losses, 7 goals conceded, only 3 away points all season, and they've conceded multiple goals in EVERY away game. Toulouse are unbeaten in 4 home H2H meetings (2 clean sheets in last 3) and concede just 5 of 13 goals at home. Strasbourg miss key striker Panichelli (ACL) and Balde; Toulouse miss Donnum (suspended) and Messali but remain structurally solid at home. Models converge on 2-1 Toulouse. Toulouse's scoring drought (2 blanks) is the risk, but Strasbourg's away collapse outweighs it.

Guingamp arrive on a 2-game win streak (3-0 vs Saint-Etienne, 2-0 at Clermont) with 3 away clean sheets. Dunkerque have 1 win in 5 (L D W L L), zero home clean sheets, and a new coach (Webo) with one match in charge. Kielt's shoulder dislocation hurts Guingamp's attack, but their defensive shape and Dunkerque's poor finishing (0.8 xG/game last 5) outweigh it. Guingamp's 2-point table edge and superior away record justify the slight favourite tag.